盡管市場預期冷拔鋼（gāng）管價格有震蕩上升的可能（néng），但是（shì）很大程度上難以迅猛上升。原因是，中國經濟整體呈現放慢的速度。中央（yāng）政治局會議部署加快基建投資，隻能（néng）是整體遏製投資增速下滑，仍難快速拉高投資增速，經濟進入新的快（kuài）速增長周期可能（néng）性不大。目前投（tóu）資增速對經濟的（de）貢獻率很低，經（jīng）濟主要靠消費拉動，對於短板領域的投資短期可以穩定經濟（jì）增速，但是從中長期看，還（hái）是要尋找新的動（dòng）力，包括加快稅改等。
Although the market anticipates that the price of cold-drawn steel pipe may rise concussively, it is difficult to rise rapidly to a large extent. The reason is that China's economy as a whole is slowing down. Speeding up capital investment at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee can only curb the decline of investment growth as a whole, but it is still difficult to rapidly increase investment growth. It is unlikely that the economy will enter a new rapid growth cycle. At present, the contribution rate of investment growth to the economy is very low. The economy is mainly driven by consumption. The short-term investment in the short-board area can stabilize the economic growth, but in the medium and long term, we still need to find new impetus, including accelerating tax reform.
2008年中國4萬億投資啟動後，鋼鐵的需求盡管整體在上升（shēng），但是價格很快下降，此後經過供給側結構性改（gǎi）革去除數億噸（dūn）產能後，冷拔鋼管價格（gé）才（cái）開始迅速回升（shēng）。
After the start of China's 4 trillion yuan investment in 2008, although the overall demand for steel has risen, the price of steel has fallen rapidly. After removing hundreds of millions of tons of capacity through the structural reform on the supply side, the price of cold-drawn steel pipe began to rise rapidly.
根據國家發改委的安排，鋼鐵業目前和煤炭一樣（yàng），已經從過去的（de）去產能進入到了結構性去產能的新階段（duàn），也就是說要培育優質產能（néng），充分利（lì）用產能置換、指標交（jiāo）易等市場化（huà）手段，加快形（xíng）成一批工藝先進、生產效率高、資源利（lì）用效率高、安全保障（zhàng）能力強、環境保護水平高、單位產品能耗低的優質產能，把結構調整過來。
According to the arrangement of the National Development and Reform Commission, the iron and steel industry, like coal, has entered a new stage of structural capacity removal from the past. That is to say, it is necessary to cultivate high-quality capacity, make full use of market-oriented means such as capacity replacement and index trading, and accelerate the formation of a batch of advanced technology, high production efficiency and resource utilization. High efficiency, strong security capability, high level of environmental protection, low energy consumption per unit product of high-quality production capacity, to adjust the structure.
同時鼓勵有條件企業實施跨地區、跨（kuà）所有製（zhì）兼（jiān）並重組，提升（shēng）整（zhěng）合優質產能，把冷拔鋼管行業高質量發展提高到一個新水平。
At the same time, conditional enterprises are encouraged to carry out cross-regional and cross-ownership mergers and reorganizations, enhance and integrate high-quality production capacity, and raise the high-quality development of cold-drawn steel pipe industry to a new level.
按此看，接下來各大鋼鐵公司產量可能會（huì）加快，這使得市場價（jià）格難以快（kuài）速上升。未來一段（duàn）時間，黑色產業鏈上的現（xiàn）貨冷拔鋼管價格依然會延續‘以穩為（wéi）主、震蕩上漲’的格局。
From this point of view, the next major steel companies may speed up production, which makes it difficult for market prices to rise rapidly. In the future, spot cold-drawn steel pipe prices in the black industry chain will continue the pattern of "stability-oriented, concussive rise".
要（yào）注意（yì）的是，國家發改委強調加快基建投（tóu）資（zī），但（dàn）是仍要求（qiú）控製負債水平。比如目前基建加快等隻是限於補短（duǎn）板領域，各（gè）地主城區達不到300萬人口要求的城市，仍不能修建地（dì）鐵。
It should be noted that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes accelerating capital investment, but still requires controlling the debt level. For example, at present, the acceleration of infrastructure construction is only limited to the field of mending boards. Cities in the main urban areas of different regions can not meet the requirements of 3 million people, and metro construction is still impossible.
下一步要把補短板作為深化供給側結構（gòu）性（xìng）改革的重點任務（wù），加強基礎設施領域補短板的力度（dù），這不是說（shuō）一（yī）定要非常大的規模擴大基礎設施建設，而是切切實實補短板。
The next step is to take the shortage board as the key task of deepening the structural reform of the supply side, and strengthen the strength of the shortage board in the field of infrastructure. This does not mean that we must expand the infrastructure construction on a very large scale, but actually make up for the shortage board.
下半年環保限產繼續加（jiā）碼使得鋼鐵生（shēng）產增量有限；從下遊需求來看，基建投資雖有所承壓但（dàn）仍有望平穩增（zēng）長，房地產新開工和施（shī）工麵積增（zēng）速韌性仍在，製造業也有望成為鋼鐵需求的重要增（zēng）長方向。加上今年春季需求釋放較晚，建築項目基本在二季度開工，為避免取暖季環保限產影響，在天氣漸好的三季度施工強度將有所提（tí）升，帶動冷拔鋼管需求集（jí）中釋放。
In the second half of the year, the increase of iron and steel production is limited because of the restriction of environmental protection and production. From the downstream demand point of view, although the investment in infrastructure is under pressure, it is expected to grow steadily. The growth of new real estate construction and construction area is still fast and tough, and the manufacturing industry is expected to become an important growth direction of iron and steel demand. With the late release of demand in spring this year, construction projects started in the second quarter. In order to avoid the impact of environmental protection and production restriction in the heating season, construction intensity will be increased in the third quarter when the weather is getting better, which will lead to the centralized release of cold-drawn steel pipe demand.
預計，2018年下半年國內冷拔鋼管市場將呈現高位震蕩、謹慎樂觀態勢，全年冷拔鋼管價格重心進一步上移，整體漲幅在10%左右。
It is expected that in the second half of 2018, the domestic cold-drawn steel pipe market will show a high volatility and cautious optimism. The price center of the cold-drawn steel pipe will further move up, with an overall increase of about 10%.
